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*** Gambling Newsletter ***

Hot News and Winning Strategies for Gamblers
Volume 4 Issue 43 - 21 APR 2006

IN THIS ISSUE

TOP NEWS: Bonus Offers
STRATEGY: Deal or No Deal
POKER: Beginners Diary
SPORTS: NHL Playoff Betting
BINGO: Jackpot
EDITOR: Full Contact Poker

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TOP NEWS
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STRATEGY
Deal or No Deal
Mark Pilarski

Dear Mark,
There is a new game show called Deal or No Deal. The participant selects
a brief case containing anywhere from 1 cent to 1 million dollars, and
there are 26 cases to choose from. Then, all non-selected cases are
slowly revealed until there are just three left, two on the board and
the one the player has selected. My wife believes at the end of the
game, when only 3 cases are left, the player has a 1 in 3 chance for the
highest prize, assuming that the 1 million has not been seen yet. I
believe the true odds are still 26-1, which is what they were when the
case was selected. Which is it? Dick D.

Dear Mark,
Do you watch Deal or No Deal, and what is your take on the game in
general and when should you take the banker's offer? Cheryl A.

Yes, Cheryl, I've watched Deal or No Deal a bit, although not a lot
since I really don't see it as much of a game, since neither skill nor
trivia is involved, just an ambiguity, a bellowing brother-in-law, the
prickle of greed, and a baseless guess.

My take on it, Cheryl: I find Deal or No Deal excruciating to watch
because of its tortoise pace, (an exercise in Job-like patience), not to
mention all those dreary commercials to keep the suspense alive (huh?).
When they finally return from pushing products, we get to watch five
more minutes of a brother-in-law in the wings yelling; "Take the Deal,
you Putz!" Now that Nielson knows what I think of the show's staging,
plot, and general entertainment value, and because of my resultant
limited exposure to it, I really can't answer your Banker offer question
with 100% certainty.

From what I have seen, I am sure that probabilities are re-calculated by
the anonymous silhouetted banker, based on what values remain in play,
which allows me to put Dick's question to bed. At the onset, Deal or No
Deal offers the best odds for winning $1 million on national TV -- 1 in
26. But once only three cases remain, those odds are improved to 1 in 3.
Your wife is right, case closed.

Back to you, Cheryl. From my limited observation of Deal or No Deal, the
banker seems to start with offers well below the expected value of the
remaining suitcases, getting closer to the expected value near the end.
A smart player would refuse the banker's offer until it is close to or
exceeds the average of the remaining suitcases. If the contestant just
wants to maximize the expected value of their winnings they should
always turn down the Banker, and yet, it seems most players end up
accepting the Banker's deal before all the brief cases are opened. So,
are they well advised by their brother-in-law to take the money and run?
Probably yes, because it seems their decisions are made based on what we
call in the gambling business risk aversion.

Given the choice between two gambles: Gamble A making the weak promise
of a very high payoff, and Gamble B making a more likely promise of a
more modest payoff -- the gambler showing "risk aversion" will choose
Gamble B, preferring to take the lesser risk. The "risk seekers",
familiar at casino tables, accept a negative expected return or the
thrill of financial risk and a possible immense payoff.

Also factored in is that the amount of money involved in Deal or No Deal
is a significant fraction of the contestant's net worth. As we crunch
the banker's offer in our heads at home in the comfort of our Lazy Boy,
the banker's stingy offer may be far more than the contestant makes in a
year. It's easy to see why many players become risk averse and are
willing to accept a sure amount rather than a possibly higher amount by
taking additional risks. Let's face it, taking risks is... risky.

Just like those million dollar figures on a progressive slot machine,
Deal or No Deal taps into the most basic human emotions: greed, a desire
to improve one's situation through a get-rich-quick scenario. It's
something we can all relate to, and one we all play in life
differently.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: When a man with money meets a man with
experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with
money leaves with experience. -- Anonymous

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POKER
Beginners Diary

Leading up to my first freeroll tournament, I warmed up with poker on
the Xbox and online in Doyles Room. I put in as much time as I could and
felt seasoned if not confident going in. The freeroll was on Titan Poker
and as the tournament progressed I realized I still had a lot to learn.

Full story at:
http://www.pokerforum.com/content/PokerForum/article3762.html

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SPORTS
NHL Playoff Betting

The NHL playoffs are here and 16 teams are ready to beat each other
black and blue for a chance to sip from Lord Stanley's mug.

Full story at:
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BINGO
Jackpot

Not satisfied with merely collecting awards and accolades from players,
publications and the online bingo community, InterBingo.com is becoming
the home to some of the biggest bingo jackpots available on the web, as
31 year old Shalu L. of San Pedro, California scored an incredible
$17,592 progressive jackpot this week.

Full story at:
http://www.winneronline.com/articles/april2006/interbingo-gives-away-its-biggest-progressvie-jackpot.htm

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EDITOR
Full Contact Poker
Steve Johnson, Gambling Newsletter

I’ve always questioned if poker is really a sport or not. Sure it’s
shown on the sports channels and sure people may sweat a lot while they
play, but is there any real contact involved?

When Fox Sports Net recently announced that it was developing a poker
series called the Poker Dome Challenge, the same questions arose.

But if seems that the network that revolutionized professional football
on television is trying to add a pro sports element to the new series.

The series will take place in the Neonopolis and participants will play
in an arena like atmosphere. Action will take place in a stage with
glass walls, monitors to measure players’ heart rates, microphones, and
state-of-the-art cameras to show facial reactions.

But the thing that will make the Poker Dome Challenge more like a sport
is a sort of shot clock. Players will have a 15 second time limit to
decide if they want to call, check, bet or fold. Fox says the clock will
dramatically increase the speed of the game.

Now all it needs are some cards made of pigskin or vulcanized rubber.


*See you in a couple of weeks!*

Steve Johnson, Editor
editor@gamblingnewsletter.com

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